The fourth outbreak of the epidemic that compelled many provinces and cities to social distance to stop and keep away from the epidemic has severely affected financial actions. Enterprise ends in July clearly mirrored the troublesome state of affairs of enterprises when the distancing measures and low demand, excessive enter prices in addition to difficulties in consumption and export prompted income to say no. whereas prices proceed to extend.
On the latest quarterly assembly of the third quarter of 2021 within the type of on-line, the chief of Binh Minh Plastics (code BMP) stated that this outbreak prompted the complete operation of the corporate to stay at solely 15 -20% in comparison with regular in July and the primary half of August. On the similar time, the excessive worth of enter supplies beforehand imported prompted a lack of 3.7 billion dong in July.
Binh Minh Plastic’s chief shared that the state of affairs was much more critical in August when the income was solely about 70-75 billion dong, a deep lower in comparison with the identical interval final 12 months and really low in comparison with the plan of 400-500 billion dong per 12 months. month.
In the meantime, the low demand for petroleum merchandise within the context of difficult illness developments has compelled Binh Son Refinery and Petrochemicals (BSR code) to scale back the plant’s capability to 90% (the utmost technical capability). minimal) from 3/8. On the similar time, key merchants decreased/stopped receiving items, inflicting the manufacturing facility’s stock to extend, regardless that that they had despatched to Dung Quat oil refinery’s warehouse, they nonetheless confronted the chance of now not having capability.
Not solely manufacturing enterprises, retail companies are additionally affected when buying energy decreases. Cellular World (code MWG) stated that almost 2,000 shops of The Gioi Di Dong/Dien Could Xanh needed to quickly shut to stop the epidemic by the tip of July. This chain is the primary income and revenue pillar for the corporate. the corporate, contributing 53.5% of the primary half of the 12 months’s income and bringing the vast majority of income to the corporate.
Lately, MWG has determined to scale back the money dividend from 10% to five% in an effort to prioritize making certain enterprise money movement within the context of extended dangers of COVID-19 epidemic and sophisticated developments.
Exporting companies, that are anticipated to be the driving drive of financial development within the second half of the 12 months, are additionally going through numerous difficulties. An Cuong Wooden (code ACG) stated that the difficult growth of the illness prompted its manufacturing capability to lower by 30-35%, however there was nonetheless an extra of products as a result of Cat Lai port was caught and couldn’t take containers to export. Income in July is predicted to lower by 20% in comparison with June, and August can also be anticipated to lower by 20-25%.
In the meantime, because of the lack of containers, massive trend labels overseas are affected, it’s troublesome to constitution ships, which has an impression on the supply actions of TNG Funding and Commerce (TNG code). The rise in freight charges didn’t have an effect on a lot as they primarily export FOB (manufacturers actively rent ships and bear the freight) however income and revenue in July additionally decreased in comparison with the identical interval final 12 months.
One other textile enterprise with a big export proportion, Thanh Cong Textile and Garment (TCM code), additionally recorded a lower in income and revenue in July. During which, income decreased by practically 3% to 14.5 million USD (practically 330 billion VND) and revenue after tax decreased by 47% to 672,933 USD (15.Three billion VND). The corporate stated that in July, when the working distance was applied, the garment trade’s labor productiveness didn’t meet the plan, resulting in low gross revenue margin in comparison with the identical interval final 12 months.
SOME ORGANIZATIONS CONTINUOUSLY DOWNLOAD GDP GROWTH FORECAST
Dealing with the difficult state of affairs of the epidemic, many home and overseas organizations have modified the situation of GDP development in addition to inflation of Vietnam in 2021.
Most not too long ago, after updating information associated to the COVID-19 epidemic and July statistics, within the first half of August 2021, VNDIRECT has lowered its forecast for GDP development in 2021 of Vietnam within the present situation. base model down to five.5% from the earlier forecast of 6.5%.
With the adverse situation, Vietnam’s GDP in 2021 could solely develop by 5% primarily based on the belief that the fourth wave of infections will last more. Many different provinces and cities within the North and Central areas should apply Directive 16 of the Authorities to stop the unfold of the illness. Extra industrial parks have needed to droop operations because of the impression of the COVID-19 pandemic.
In addition to, vaccination price is low as a result of lack of vaccine provide. VNDIRECT believes that lower than 30% of the inhabitants can be vaccinated with not less than 1 dose of COVID-19 vaccine by the tip of 2021 and that Vietnam is not going to pilot worldwide vacationers this 12 months.
Beforehand, Rong Viet Securities Firm (VDSC) additionally emphasised that the financial outlook for the second half of 2021 relies upon closely on the effectiveness of illness prevention, in addition to vaccination progress. This securities firm even decreased its forecast of GDP development for the entire 12 months 2021 to 4%. The VDSC believes that this determine displays the adverse results of the fourth outbreak on home actions, in addition to the extended impact of Covid-19 prevention measures on financial exercise.
With a extra cautious view, Dragon Capital believes that this quarter, Vietnam could document the bottom development price in a few years as that is the quarter that displays practically each adverse impression of the COVID pandemic. This overseas fund forecasts Vietnam’s GDP development in 2021 could also be at 3.7%. Notably, in a report launched in mid-July, this overseas fund additionally lowered its forecast for Vietnam’s GDP development in 2021 from 6% to five%.
Dragon Capital is extra optimistic in regards to the velocity of vaccine growth and forecasts that by the start of September, about 50% of the inhabitants in massive cities can be vaccinated with not less than 1 dose after which it’s more likely to loosen up. regularly social distancing. This overseas fund assesses that the financial outlook stays optimistic with a stable basis. As soon as the vaccine program is accomplished (120 million doses for 70% of the inhabitants), the economic system will quickly be again on observe.
In keeping with information from the Ministry of Well being, up to date to the tip of August 16, the entire variety of vaccine doses administered in Vietnam is 15,271,562 doses, of which 13,869,728 doses are given, and 1,401 are given for the second dose. .834 doses.