Provide chain is at risk of breaking, many companies go away the market, GDP continues to be stable?

Within the first half of 2021, Vietnam nonetheless achieved optimistic financial outcomes. Particularly, the economic system recorded a progress fee of 4.65% within the first quarter and 6.61% within the second quarter of 2021 in comparison with the identical interval final yr, although the 2 outbreaks of the Covid-19 epidemic pressured the applying of recent measures. restrictions to manage the pandemic.

Decoding Vietnam's economic growth figures: Supply chain is in danger of breaking, many businesses leave the market, GDP is still stable?  - Photo 1.

GDP progress of Vietnam, 2017–2021. Information: GSO

The primary outbreak occurred round January-February, however was introduced beneath management comparatively shortly. The second wave of epidemics started on the finish of April, and is probably the most severe illness unfold in Vietnam up to now.

The applying of stronger journey restrictions triggered the journey index to drop sharply and the Authorities’s strictness index to extend, by the top of July, it returned to shut to the extent recorded within the earlier yr. nationwide social isolation in April 2020.

The World Financial institution (WB) not too long ago commented that, The stable combination progress of the entire economic system within the first half of 2021 obscures uneven outcomes throughout sectors. At present, the principle progress drivers are the economic and development zones (contributing about 53.2% to GDP progress), adopted by the service sector (30.7%), and agriculture (7.6%). ).

Decoding Vietnam's economic growth figures: Supply chain is in danger of breaking, many businesses leave the market, GDP is still stable?  - Photo 2.

Journey pattern and tightness stage indicator. Supply: Our world utilizing Google group knowledge and journey knowledge

Trade and development first, progress on this area has returned to its pre-pandemic fee of about 8%, because of expanded manufacturing and processing actions.

Subsequent is agriculture. The area is comparatively much less affected by the pandemic, additionally recording progress of about 3.85%, because of favorable local weather circumstances and the top of African swine fever.

Providers remained a slower area to get better, partly because of sensitivity to high school closures and journey restrictions throughout the Covid-19 outbreaks in January-February and April. progress on this area solely reached 4.0%, equal to about 60% of the expansion fee recorded within the first half of 2019.

The final is lively within the retail, leisure and transportation industries. That is the world with probably the most decline. Closing the border to most worldwide arrivals (down 97.6%) additionally contributed to the deep downturn within the tourism and transportation industries.

Decoding Vietnam's economic growth figures: Supply chain is in danger of breaking, many businesses leave the market, GDP is still stable?  - Photo 3.

Contribution to financial progress by sector. Supply: GSO and WB calculations.

Decoding Vietnam's economic growth figures: Supply chain is in danger of breaking, many businesses leave the market, GDP is still stable?  - Photo 4.

Contribution to GDP progress by expenditure. Supply: GSO and WB calculations.

The influence of social distancing measures is clearly seen within the numbers. For the reason that finish of April 2021, industrial manufacturing and repair actions have decreased sharply. In July 2021, the overall retail gross sales of products and providers decreased by 19.8% (year-on-year), the biggest lower since April 2020.

Accordingly, many organizations have not too long ago lowered their forecast for Vietnam’s financial progress this yr. Particularly, the World Financial institution forecasts that financial progress for the entire yr 2021 will lower to 4.8%. This forecast is 2 proportion factors decrease than the forecast made by the World Financial institution in December 2020.

Or as Commonplace Chartered additionally lowered Vietnam’s progress forecast from 6.5% to 4.7% in 2021. Dragon Capital lowered its GDP progress forecast to three.7%. Rong Viet Securities Firm (VDSC) forecasts that Vietnam’s GDP will drop to 4%.

As such, whether or not Vietnam’s economic system will get better within the second half of 2021, in accordance with Rahul Kitchlu, the World Financial institution’s performing nation director for Vietnam, it nonetheless will depend on the outcomes of the controls. present outbreak of Covid-19 outbreak. In the long run, consultants imagine that the Covid-19 epidemic prevention technique have to be accompanied by a unified logistics – logistics technique, as a result of the availability chain disruption will turn into increasingly extreme.

Mr. Vu

Enterprise & Advertising and marketing

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